***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 0.6 62.2 61.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.1 12.4 0.4 57.0 57.9 10.0 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.1 12.5 0.6 62.9 61.5 12.2 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 10.1 9.1 10.5 0.4 56.3 58.5 7.1 8.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.0 10.6 10.4 0.4 60.0 59.0 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.0 9.6 8.4 0.3 56.9 57.6 8.1 9.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 12.4 0.3 55.3 57.6 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.2 4.6 8.4 0.3 61.1 58.6 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.0 11.5 10.8 0.4 61.5 59.8 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 11.8 11.5 9.2 0.3 60.7 58.7 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.5 10.9 9.8 0.4 61.9 59.5 9.5 10.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 9.9 9.4 9.3 0.4 63.1 59.5 7.5 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.7 8.7 0.3 61.4 58.1 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.7 10.6 0.3 54.2 57.7 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.1 11.2 11.0 0.4 56.1 58.8 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.4 11.6 9.4 0.3 57.8 58.7 10.0 11.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.9 12.0 0.2 53.0 54.6 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 10.0 9.5 8.4 0.3 56.1 58.0 8.1 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 12.8 12.6 12.4 0.5 59.9 59.6 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.6 6.7 0.2 55.4 56.5 4.2 5.2 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 12.0 11.3 11.9 0.5 62.1 60.8 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.3 11.9 0.2 55.3 55.4 9.9 10.6 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.3 11.9 12.2 0.6 63.5 61.2 10.3 11.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.3 10.4 0.4 58.6 59.6 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.3 11.8 11.3 0.5 61.7 60.7 10.0 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.8 8.8 0.3 61.5 57.6 8.5 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.0 12.3 12.0 0.5 60.7 60.6 11.0 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.8 10.6 0.3 55.3 57.9 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 9.2 8.5 7.7 0.3 56.3 57.6 7.4 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.5 12.6 0.5 60.1 59.6 10.5 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------