***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 3.6 92.9 93.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 12.3 13.6 13.8 3.3 94.0 93.8 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 14.0 15.1 13.8 3.4 93.4 93.5 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 9.2 9.7 11.0 2.6 91.2 88.8 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 10.4 12.0 11.4 2.7 92.9 91.2 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 9.2 10.4 8.7 2.1 89.7 87.3 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 12.3 13.7 13.7 3.2 93.8 93.3 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 3.8 6.5 9.4 2.8 92.7 92.2 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.1 12.1 3.0 94.0 93.6 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.1 12.3 10.4 2.9 94.0 93.4 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.3 10.9 2.7 93.4 92.4 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.0 10.2 9.9 2.6 91.6 91.1 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 10.2 11.3 9.3 2.1 90.6 87.0 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 11.7 12.5 12.1 3.0 95.7 94.5 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 12.1 12.6 12.3 2.6 90.4 88.9 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 12.0 13.5 10.2 2.3 92.1 88.7 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 12.1 13.3 13.3 3.1 93.9 93.4 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 8.9 10.4 9.5 2.8 95.5 93.8 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 12.1 13.1 13.8 3.4 94.5 94.2 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.9 7.2 7.4 2.9 95.1 93.8 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.0 12.2 13.2 3.1 93.0 92.6 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 11.4 13.1 13.4 3.1 94.5 94.1 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.5 12.9 13.7 3.5 95.3 94.8 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 11.3 12.1 11.8 3.0 96.1 94.5 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 11.7 13.7 12.9 3.3 92.9 92.1 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 10.0 10.5 8.7 1.9 85.1 82.6 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 12.4 14.6 13.4 3.4 93.4 92.8 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 9.8 10.5 11.2 2.3 89.1 86.3 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 8.3 11.1 8.9 2.9 96.2 94.9 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 12.1 14.0 14.0 3.4 94.0 93.8 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------