***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 37.5 46.3 46.4 79.6 45.5 41.9 39.4 49.0 61.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 34.7 43.2 48.3 81.2 44.1 41.1 37.2 51.7 67.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 59.0 47.9 43.7 73.7 39.4 36.6 41.7 52.4 67.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 75.4 62.6 60.0 88.7 47.3 44.4 55.5 69.6 80.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 48.1 58.7 58.1 84.9 46.2 41.8 47.0 60.3 70.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 46.6 55.7 80.4 87.9 45.8 41.6 51.4 57.4 73.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 25.5 29.3 47.1 78.4 43.3 40.1 26.3 33.8 61.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 74.2 91.0 64.7 84.5 41.2 40.7 87.6 96.7 110.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 39.1 45.3 56.4 83.3 40.8 40.5 40.4 48.8 61.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 47.1 58.1 66.5 83.9 39.6 40.6 52.9 64.8 75.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 35.9 47.4 53.0 84.0 44.8 41.7 38.3 48.5 62.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 42.9 53.1 51.4 83.0 41.4 40.4 46.6 54.2 64.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 36.6 46.7 66.7 89.4 49.7 43.3 41.8 46.9 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 48.2 60.1 59.1 78.7 38.6 38.8 54.5 74.4 88.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 48.2 48.9 64.6 104.7 56.5 52.5 39.7 43.3 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 37.7 44.6 59.4 87.3 47.5 43.5 42.4 46.4 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 34.5 38.1 46.9 76.1 40.1 38.8 33.7 47.5 55.0 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 54.0 58.8 76.9 86.5 43.3 42.6 56.4 66.8 82.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 39.9 47.7 48.1 82.3 44.7 41.5 38.4 58.5 80.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 49.9 63.7 83.1 88.6 44.7 41.9 50.0 68.7 89.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 36.5 47.7 48.4 81.4 43.3 40.0 43.0 52.6 60.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 34.9 41.4 48.5 80.8 40.8 40.5 31.5 45.0 60.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 57.0 43.5 48.7 82.3 42.8 41.4 37.0 50.0 63.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 54.2 62.4 62.2 81.8 40.3 40.6 54.9 69.0 79.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 60.2 41.4 60.0 83.7 42.1 42.7 36.8 53.3 67.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 43.4 53.8 55.7 87.4 44.9 41.3 44.8 55.7 61.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 66.5 53.2 56.1 80.9 42.8 42.4 37.9 61.5 68.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 55.4 50.1 61.4 95.0 49.7 47.5 38.4 50.2 60.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 71.4 88.0 77.9 86.5 43.7 41.9 78.2 89.4 102.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 32.7 36.5 46.1 78.3 43.2 40.0 29.1 42.9 62.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------