***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.7 13.2 11.7 83.4 61.1 46.9 5.8 8.6 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.0 10.3 11.7 78.9 57.5 45.5 3.0 7.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.4 16.0 12.1 83.4 58.8 48.9 5.4 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 9.2 21.3 14.8 95.6 63.6 51.0 9.9 15.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.4 11.5 14.5 92.5 62.3 50.4 6.7 10.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.9 17.0 21.5 98.6 61.6 49.8 10.8 14.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.1 11.3 77.0 55.3 44.7 3.0 4.6 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 14.7 32.7 17.4 99.2 59.5 49.9 14.9 24.1 36.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.5 17.4 14.5 92.6 63.0 51.6 8.6 12.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 17.7 17.6 95.0 61.5 50.0 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.0 15.3 13.4 94.5 63.8 50.0 8.0 11.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.2 16.7 13.8 101.7 62.9 50.2 9.0 12.9 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 6.6 16.5 16.6 100.7 62.1 50.5 6.2 12.4 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.1 24.2 16.6 90.7 60.4 49.5 11.3 15.6 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 19.9 20.9 14.8 112.8 71.2 58.1 6.2 11.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.8 16.2 14.5 96.3 62.0 50.5 5.4 8.6 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.1 8.5 11.1 74.6 53.8 43.4 3.9 8.3 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.4 18.9 20.6 97.0 63.6 50.3 13.2 17.0 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.8 11.8 82.1 59.6 46.9 2.1 7.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 17.4 22.0 100.5 61.5 50.8 9.4 13.3 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.4 14.1 12.4 90.5 64.3 50.8 5.7 10.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.8 11.7 82.7 57.7 44.0 5.8 10.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.8 12.5 86.4 60.9 48.8 3.9 7.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.8 23.0 17.0 92.8 62.9 50.4 11.4 19.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.5 16.9 14.8 88.8 59.3 46.5 5.8 11.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.3 14.7 13.9 96.7 60.4 49.2 6.8 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.4 13.8 82.5 56.8 45.6 4.8 7.6 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.8 17.1 14.6 98.4 66.2 53.8 9.6 14.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 26.7 28.4 20.9 97.2 62.3 50.0 15.5 24.0 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.6 11.7 79.1 57.7 46.5 5.6 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------