***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 10.7 17.7 14.2 102.1 62.5 50.4 12.7 17.1 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 6.6 15.6 16.6 114.0 67.7 55.3 5.8 10.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.8 13.1 12.6 86.4 56.2 46.2 7.9 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.0 20.8 16.4 101.4 59.7 49.2 9.1 14.7 24.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.7 14.7 86.7 56.2 44.5 12.1 17.9 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 6.3 10.7 19.5 81.5 48.6 41.9 5.2 12.5 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.6 17.7 119.7 67.0 55.9 5.4 9.9 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.3 23.9 16.3 81.1 50.4 41.9 14.3 23.9 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.7 16.0 14.5 81.8 56.7 42.6 5.5 13.2 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 7.7 15.4 17.1 80.8 50.0 41.4 10.5 15.4 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 6.3 14.7 13.2 82.4 54.6 43.0 5.3 10.0 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.0 14.2 12.3 76.8 51.2 41.7 4.9 13.0 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.2 8.8 14.8 76.5 49.0 41.3 4.0 9.2 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.0 16.6 16.3 80.5 52.5 45.1 11.3 15.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.5 18.8 17.5 120.1 68.0 52.4 5.3 11.5 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.5 7.7 13.8 80.8 51.6 42.6 5.3 7.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.6 12.9 17.7 115.1 67.4 54.2 6.0 8.9 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 13.9 18.8 75.1 48.1 39.8 8.1 14.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.2 17.1 15.2 105.4 66.5 53.4 6.7 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.5 17.5 21.6 83.5 50.4 42.0 9.8 17.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.4 18.1 12.5 83.7 57.8 44.6 9.9 13.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.5 12.2 16.2 108.7 67.6 53.6 7.1 10.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.3 12.9 13.7 89.9 61.7 49.2 7.3 8.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.3 12.5 15.3 73.6 47.7 41.2 7.8 13.9 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.7 17.7 100.6 60.0 51.6 7.9 10.8 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.2 10.7 12.4 79.2 52.6 41.7 6.5 9.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.7 17.9 105.3 62.8 52.7 8.3 17.7 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 16.6 20.4 16.1 103.8 62.1 48.4 10.3 14.6 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 11.5 23.8 19.4 76.3 49.9 40.8 15.9 23.8 32.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.4 15.7 110.1 66.9 54.1 8.9 11.8 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------