***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.4 12.4 96.7 55.7 47.6 4.4 11.2 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.6 12.3 92.9 55.6 48.3 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.8 12.0 93.1 55.4 45.4 4.5 9.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.8 16.9 113.1 63.0 53.7 5.8 10.9 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.3 9.4 16.8 112.7 62.3 52.8 4.0 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.9 23.7 106.1 59.0 53.5 6.3 9.6 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.0 11.5 85.8 56.8 46.1 2.9 4.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.6 19.0 109.1 60.1 53.2 11.2 19.6 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.9 16.4 111.0 59.4 51.0 5.1 9.4 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.6 19.4 111.0 58.8 51.8 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.2 8.3 15.5 111.9 63.9 53.5 3.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.3 11.1 15.6 111.4 62.3 53.4 5.3 7.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.5 19.9 110.4 60.0 54.2 3.6 6.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.8 16.1 98.1 61.3 48.7 5.4 15.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.9 17.4 124.7 69.1 56.5 1.5 4.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.9 12.2 17.5 111.9 63.2 54.7 6.8 9.0 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.9 11.6 81.8 57.8 45.5 2.7 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 17.8 22.9 115.3 62.7 53.1 9.2 13.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.9 12.7 99.7 58.7 49.4 3.9 9.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.1 25.0 111.3 62.8 54.7 5.9 8.6 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.4 13.6 105.7 58.9 49.7 1.1 9.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.0 13.6 13.2 98.8 61.3 47.5 4.1 9.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.3 13.2 106.3 63.6 50.7 3.9 9.5 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.6 18.1 17.7 105.5 59.9 50.4 7.0 12.4 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.6 17.2 104.9 61.3 50.7 3.2 6.0 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.7 16.4 17.6 115.8 67.0 56.9 4.0 6.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.2 15.5 98.5 58.3 48.7 3.6 9.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.7 16.6 116.5 64.4 54.6 3.4 6.6 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 20.0 23.5 114.8 63.7 54.3 10.4 17.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.7 8.9 11.8 91.3 54.8 46.6 4.6 8.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------