***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.7 5.1 8.1 46.3 27.1 26.8 7.1 10.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 3.4 3.2 7.7 45.6 31.4 27.5 3.4 9.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 3.4 1.5 7.0 40.6 22.0 21.9 3.6 12.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 6.2 10.0 11.8 56.3 33.3 31.5 9.8 17.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.5 12.2 58.2 33.0 32.5 5.5 10.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 7.0 8.3 15.6 66.9 37.9 35.5 7.5 14.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 3.6 4.1 6.5 38.2 28.3 23.8 4.9 8.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 12.1 16.3 12.0 56.2 29.9 29.6 17.5 24.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.8 4.1 11.0 56.3 32.1 30.5 4.3 9.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.2 10.1 12.4 56.4 31.9 29.9 10.2 13.0 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.9 11.0 57.7 35.9 32.3 4.2 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 7.2 7.2 9.8 53.1 29.6 28.8 8.6 14.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.1 9.7 15.2 74.2 41.4 39.7 6.8 10.1 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 5.1 6.4 10.1 50.3 28.1 25.8 7.2 13.2 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.8 14.8 74.8 47.4 41.7 5.8 9.5 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.8 9.5 13.6 67.7 40.1 37.0 5.3 12.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 3.6 3.1 6.5 37.9 25.4 23.6 5.2 12.3 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.5 9.6 14.6 64.2 37.2 33.1 9.0 11.9 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 6.2 6.3 8.3 49.4 31.2 28.4 7.0 17.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.3 8.3 14.5 62.0 32.6 32.5 8.4 16.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.9 5.7 10.0 55.3 31.6 29.9 5.7 13.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 4.7 5.2 7.4 42.1 28.1 24.7 6.2 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 3.7 5.3 9.3 54.8 29.5 28.9 7.4 10.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 6.7 6.7 12.3 61.0 35.5 30.9 5.9 17.3 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 4.8 5.5 10.4 49.2 28.0 26.6 8.2 13.5 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 6.1 5.9 11.8 63.7 32.8 33.3 5.9 13.9 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 4.0 3.9 9.1 45.2 27.5 25.5 5.0 12.4 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.8 10.1 14.2 70.7 43.6 38.8 8.6 13.9 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.9 9.1 14.2 62.4 34.9 33.2 8.5 16.0 28.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 3.1 1.7 6.9 40.8 28.2 24.8 2.6 10.5 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------