***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.0 22.5 -0.5 39.1 42.6 22.5 23.9 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.1 22.6 -0.4 41.5 44.6 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.1 22.9 22.4 -0.6 37.6 41.2 22.7 23.8 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.7 15.4 20.1 -1.0 31.5 33.4 15.4 17.0 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.0 20.5 -0.9 33.8 36.0 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.2 18.2 -1.1 28.4 32.5 21.2 22.6 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.0 22.6 -0.3 44.9 46.0 22.3 23.5 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.8 10.7 18.8 -1.0 30.7 35.4 11.1 12.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.3 22.4 21.1 -0.8 34.5 37.4 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.2 19.6 -0.9 32.8 36.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 22.5 22.5 20.0 -0.9 32.1 35.4 22.6 23.4 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 21.6 21.4 19.5 -1.0 29.6 34.2 21.6 22.7 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 22.4 22.5 19.1 -1.1 29.5 33.7 22.6 23.7 24.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.5 22.8 20.9 -0.7 35.7 38.4 22.6 23.7 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 22.8 22.7 20.6 -1.1 28.7 30.2 23.0 24.0 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 23.0 23.0 19.6 -1.0 30.0 34.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.8 22.4 -0.3 43.7 46.1 22.2 23.1 24.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.8 21.8 19.0 -0.8 34.1 37.6 21.8 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.5 22.5 -0.5 39.9 43.2 22.3 23.4 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 17.0 17.1 16.9 -0.8 33.6 37.9 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.4 21.8 -0.7 34.9 38.7 22.4 23.7 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.0 22.2 -0.5 39.5 42.5 22.5 23.8 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.2 22.9 22.2 -0.6 37.4 41.0 22.7 24.0 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.3 22.2 20.7 -0.8 35.9 38.8 22.1 23.2 24.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 22.7 22.4 20.8 -0.7 35.3 38.9 22.3 23.8 24.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 21.7 22.0 18.8 -1.0 29.4 34.4 22.2 23.0 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.9 21.7 -0.5 38.9 42.1 22.3 23.4 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 22.8 22.6 20.3 -1.1 28.4 31.2 22.9 23.9 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.9 16.7 18.1 -0.8 34.3 38.0 16.7 17.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.0 22.9 22.6 -0.4 40.8 44.1 22.3 23.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------