***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.6 25.1 24.9 0.1 50.9 51.5 23.5 25.1 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.3 25.0 0.2 56.1 52.0 23.7 24.5 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 25.3 24.9 24.9 0.0 50.9 51.0 24.1 24.9 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.1 22.8 -0.3 48.1 49.1 16.3 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.3 23.1 -0.1 50.2 51.0 24.2 25.2 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.6 21.1 0.2 54.0 53.7 22.5 23.4 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.8 25.1 0.2 56.5 52.4 23.2 24.6 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.7 21.6 0.1 51.9 52.9 11.5 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.4 23.5 0.0 51.0 51.3 23.3 24.1 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.1 22.3 0.1 51.6 52.2 23.2 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.2 24.9 22.6 0.1 52.1 52.4 23.8 24.8 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.9 22.4 0.1 51.8 52.5 22.3 23.9 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.2 21.9 0.1 54.1 52.5 23.7 24.7 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.6 23.2 0.0 49.4 50.7 23.3 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.3 23.0 -0.5 47.6 46.5 24.4 25.4 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.6 22.4 0.0 52.1 52.2 24.4 25.6 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.5 24.8 0.3 56.9 52.2 22.8 24.4 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.9 21.6 0.1 52.3 52.3 22.3 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.7 25.0 0.1 54.9 51.6 23.1 24.1 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.4 19.1 19.7 0.2 53.0 53.8 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.2 24.8 24.3 -0.1 49.9 50.6 23.5 24.8 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.9 24.6 0.1 54.8 51.0 23.3 24.3 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.8 24.6 0.0 52.9 51.0 23.9 24.7 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.0 23.2 0.0 50.6 51.3 22.9 24.0 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.2 24.9 23.2 -0.1 49.0 50.0 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.1 21.8 0.1 55.7 53.2 23.0 23.9 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.7 24.1 0.0 50.8 51.1 23.6 24.6 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.5 24.6 23.0 -0.4 48.3 48.6 24.4 25.1 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.2 20.7 0.2 51.6 52.9 17.1 19.2 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.1 25.1 0.2 55.1 51.9 23.9 24.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------