***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.3 23.6 0.2 52.1 50.4 21.9 24.0 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.5 23.5 0.1 49.3 50.3 22.2 24.6 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.6 23.6 0.2 49.4 50.2 22.0 24.6 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.7 15.3 21.7 0.0 42.7 47.8 14.5 17.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.2 22.9 21.9 0.1 43.6 48.9 22.1 23.6 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 22.8 21.6 20.0 0.2 45.1 50.0 20.6 22.3 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.0 23.5 0.2 49.9 50.9 22.3 24.0 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 13.2 11.9 20.3 0.0 43.4 47.7 10.7 12.8 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.2 22.7 22.3 0.2 45.3 49.7 21.5 23.7 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 23.8 22.2 21.1 0.1 44.2 48.8 21.6 23.2 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 23.5 22.4 21.4 0.1 44.0 48.5 21.9 23.0 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 22.4 21.7 21.1 0.0 43.6 47.3 21.0 21.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 24.0 22.7 20.6 0.0 43.9 47.4 22.0 23.5 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.7 23.8 21.9 0.0 46.8 48.7 21.9 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.2 22.7 21.9 -0.2 40.3 46.1 22.5 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 24.3 23.3 21.1 0.1 43.4 48.0 22.7 23.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.3 23.2 0.1 48.4 50.1 22.6 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.1 20.4 0.1 46.8 49.0 21.3 22.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.3 23.5 0.1 48.4 49.7 21.6 24.3 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.8 17.8 18.1 -0.1 43.7 47.2 16.6 18.3 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.7 23.1 0.2 46.0 49.7 21.5 24.0 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.7 22.9 -0.2 43.7 47.7 22.4 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.3 23.2 0.0 47.3 49.1 22.1 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.4 22.0 0.1 49.0 49.8 21.1 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.8 23.7 22.0 0.1 46.8 48.7 22.1 24.3 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 23.7 22.4 20.4 0.0 45.0 47.2 21.4 23.3 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.1 22.8 0.2 50.3 49.7 22.0 24.1 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.5 22.9 21.8 -0.1 41.4 47.3 21.8 23.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.8 17.4 19.3 0.0 45.3 48.3 16.6 18.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.8 23.6 0.2 50.2 50.3 21.6 24.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------