***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.5 22.0 -0.5 42.1 45.3 23.0 23.6 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.0 22.2 -0.4 44.2 46.1 23.1 24.2 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.7 21.9 -0.8 42.8 43.1 23.1 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.6 19.8 -1.0 39.2 40.1 15.4 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.4 23.1 19.9 -1.1 38.9 39.6 22.7 24.0 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 20.1 21.3 17.5 -1.4 33.5 36.0 21.3 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.4 23.5 22.2 -0.3 43.8 47.5 22.4 24.1 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.9 18.1 -1.5 35.8 36.9 10.5 12.1 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.7 20.3 -1.1 39.7 39.9 21.9 23.7 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.6 22.5 19.0 -1.3 37.7 38.2 22.1 23.1 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.9 19.3 -1.3 37.8 38.2 22.3 23.5 24.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.2 21.6 18.8 -1.5 35.8 36.3 21.6 23.0 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.7 18.2 -1.5 36.8 36.3 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.5 23.8 20.2 -1.2 40.9 39.5 21.8 24.1 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.1 20.1 -1.0 40.2 39.8 21.8 24.5 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.4 18.9 -1.3 36.4 37.4 22.9 24.2 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 23.8 22.9 22.1 -0.2 46.3 47.8 21.8 23.3 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.4 21.7 18.3 -1.4 37.9 38.1 21.6 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.5 22.1 -0.6 43.9 44.6 22.7 23.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.2 16.6 16.1 -1.5 36.0 37.7 16.5 18.3 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.2 21.2 -0.9 41.4 41.7 22.3 23.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.8 21.9 -0.5 45.3 45.0 22.4 24.2 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.8 21.7 -0.8 43.4 42.2 22.6 24.4 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.2 22.7 20.1 -1.2 41.1 39.7 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.2 20.4 -0.7 42.4 43.8 22.4 23.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 21.1 21.8 18.0 -1.4 37.0 36.4 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.2 21.3 -0.5 43.1 45.5 22.5 23.6 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 21.8 22.8 19.9 -1.1 38.7 38.3 22.5 24.5 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.6 17.1 17.3 -1.4 38.1 37.9 16.4 18.7 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.4 23.7 22.2 -0.5 43.1 45.6 22.9 23.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------