***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 20.0 19.6 19.4 -1.7 26.8 30.4 19.8 21.9 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.8 19.6 19.5 -1.5 30.9 33.3 20.1 22.2 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 20.2 19.5 19.3 -1.8 27.3 30.0 20.2 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 12.7 12.1 16.0 -2.6 19.2 23.1 13.0 14.8 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 19.9 19.9 17.0 -2.4 21.8 24.8 20.6 21.9 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 18.2 17.6 14.0 -3.2 15.4 21.0 18.6 20.1 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.5 19.2 19.5 -1.4 30.5 34.2 19.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.6 6.8 15.1 -2.5 20.6 25.2 8.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 19.3 19.1 18.1 -2.3 22.6 26.3 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 19.6 19.1 16.2 -2.4 22.3 26.0 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 19.3 18.8 16.6 -2.6 21.8 24.2 20.4 21.6 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 18.8 18.3 15.7 -2.7 19.2 23.0 18.9 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 19.3 18.6 15.6 -2.8 17.0 22.4 20.2 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.0 18.2 -1.8 30.1 31.5 20.2 21.8 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 20.2 19.8 17.5 -2.7 18.2 21.7 20.4 22.1 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 20.0 19.6 16.1 -2.7 19.9 22.9 20.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 19.8 19.4 -1.3 34.0 36.0 19.6 21.6 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 19.1 18.9 15.7 -2.2 26.1 28.8 19.4 20.4 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 20.1 19.3 19.5 -1.6 30.6 32.7 19.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 14.4 13.9 13.7 -2.0 27.1 30.7 14.2 15.7 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 19.8 19.3 18.8 -2.1 24.1 27.6 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.7 20.1 19.3 -1.4 33.7 35.0 20.1 22.3 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.4 19.9 19.3 -1.7 30.2 31.5 20.2 22.2 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 19.6 19.1 17.7 -2.0 27.8 29.7 19.7 21.4 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 20.2 19.7 17.8 -2.0 25.2 27.9 20.1 22.2 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 18.8 17.9 14.9 -2.8 15.4 22.2 19.4 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.1 19.8 18.8 -1.7 27.0 30.4 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 19.9 19.4 16.5 -2.8 17.5 21.5 20.4 21.9 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 13.9 13.5 15.1 -2.0 27.8 30.1 14.1 15.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.5 19.5 19.6 -1.5 30.2 32.4 19.6 21.7 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------