***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.2 12.2 -0.5 33.7 37.4 11.2 11.8 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 10.9 11.2 12.2 -0.5 37.0 38.8 11.1 11.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.7 11.9 -0.6 33.0 35.2 12.7 13.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 7.2 7.3 9.6 -0.8 27.8 29.5 7.4 8.2 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 9.1 9.6 9.7 -0.7 29.7 31.9 9.7 10.1 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.4 8.0 -0.6 37.7 36.0 8.4 8.8 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.4 12.3 -0.4 37.5 40.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 3.3 8.0 -0.5 35.0 37.2 3.2 4.1 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.5 10.2 -0.6 31.8 34.7 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.5 8.6 -0.5 33.4 36.1 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.2 9.3 -0.6 32.3 34.2 10.2 10.8 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.4 8.7 -0.6 33.1 34.4 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.7 9.6 8.2 -0.7 31.0 30.7 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 10.9 10.9 10.2 -0.6 30.5 34.0 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 10.8 11.0 10.3 -0.8 24.2 27.5 11.4 11.7 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.7 10.5 9.0 -0.7 31.0 31.7 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 11.3 11.6 12.1 -0.4 38.9 40.6 11.5 12.0 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.4 8.5 7.9 -0.5 31.2 35.8 8.7 9.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.2 12.1 -0.5 36.0 37.5 11.1 11.5 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 4.8 6.2 -0.5 34.9 38.6 4.8 5.7 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 10.1 10.6 11.3 -0.7 30.3 33.8 10.6 10.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.5 10.6 11.9 -0.5 35.0 37.6 10.6 10.9 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.6 10.6 11.6 -0.6 34.6 35.6 10.6 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.4 9.9 -0.6 30.8 34.8 10.4 11.0 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 10.3 10.7 10.6 -0.7 28.9 32.7 10.9 11.2 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 9.2 9.0 8.2 -0.9 23.0 27.7 9.3 10.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.4 11.4 -0.6 32.3 35.7 11.4 11.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 9.0 9.1 10.0 -0.8 26.3 28.6 9.3 10.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.4 7.5 7.4 -0.5 35.2 38.4 7.5 7.9 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.3 12.3 -0.5 36.4 37.8 11.3 11.6 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------