***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.2 14.5 0.0 54.2 50.1 11.4 13.2 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 11.2 13.2 14.6 0.1 53.8 50.4 11.4 12.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.9 14.3 0.0 52.2 50.3 13.1 14.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.7 12.2 -0.1 53.0 49.7 7.6 9.3 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.3 12.2 0.0 54.5 51.9 10.4 11.3 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.7 10.2 10.5 0.2 58.4 54.5 9.6 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.7 13.3 14.6 0.1 53.1 50.6 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.6 10.3 0.0 52.2 51.8 3.6 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 12.5 0.1 55.4 52.5 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.2 10.9 0.1 53.3 52.2 11.0 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 11.7 0.0 54.6 52.4 10.7 11.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.7 11.1 0.0 52.2 51.3 8.9 9.6 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.4 10.7 0.0 55.7 52.2 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 12.4 0.0 47.5 49.5 11.8 12.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.9 12.6 -0.2 51.3 47.6 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.4 11.4 0.0 56.1 52.5 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 11.6 13.2 14.4 0.1 53.8 50.4 11.9 12.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.3 10.2 0.1 52.7 52.3 9.6 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.9 14.4 0.0 52.3 50.1 11.6 12.7 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.8 8.6 0.1 57.5 53.3 5.4 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 13.6 0.0 55.1 51.2 11.6 12.0 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.9 12.0 14.1 0.0 49.2 49.2 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.6 14.0 0.0 49.6 49.4 11.6 12.6 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.0 12.3 0.0 50.5 51.3 10.9 12.0 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 12.8 -0.1 52.2 49.5 11.1 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.2 10.9 0.0 59.7 52.2 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.8 13.6 0.0 53.0 49.8 11.4 12.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.9 12.5 -0.1 54.9 49.8 10.2 10.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 9.5 9.6 0.1 56.9 52.8 7.6 9.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.7 13.5 14.6 0.1 53.1 50.3 11.6 13.3 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------