***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.5 13.1 -0.1 46.3 46.9 11.2 11.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.7 13.0 -0.1 47.0 47.1 10.7 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.0 12.8 -0.2 43.1 45.1 12.4 13.8 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.3 7.5 10.6 -0.4 38.1 42.2 7.3 8.9 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.2 10.6 -0.3 39.4 43.2 10.1 10.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.0 8.9 -0.2 41.1 44.5 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.0 13.2 0.0 50.2 48.8 10.8 12.0 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.9 8.8 -0.3 41.8 43.7 3.5 4.1 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.3 11.0 -0.2 42.4 44.1 10.8 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.4 9.5 -0.2 41.9 44.1 10.8 11.8 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.0 10.1 -0.3 40.1 43.1 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.9 9.6 -0.4 40.6 42.4 8.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.4 9.1 -0.4 38.9 42.3 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.6 11.0 -0.3 40.4 44.1 11.4 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.0 11.1 -0.4 35.8 41.5 11.9 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.0 9.8 -0.3 39.9 43.0 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.5 12.9 -0.1 48.3 48.1 11.2 12.7 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.9 8.8 -0.2 41.1 44.6 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.6 12.9 -0.2 44.2 45.6 11.2 12.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 5.9 7.1 -0.2 44.8 45.1 5.5 6.0 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.4 12.1 -0.3 45.1 44.0 10.8 11.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.4 10.9 12.6 -0.3 43.7 44.9 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.3 12.4 -0.3 41.0 44.0 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.2 10.8 -0.3 40.7 44.2 11.1 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.6 11.3 -0.3 42.8 44.2 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.0 9.3 -0.3 41.9 42.7 9.7 10.5 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.9 12.2 -0.1 46.3 46.3 11.0 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.9 10.9 -0.4 37.1 42.0 9.6 10.3 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.9 8.2 -0.2 41.9 44.9 7.4 8.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.0 13.1 -0.1 46.8 47.0 11.1 12.2 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------