***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.8 11.7 -0.6 41.9 41.9 10.5 10.9 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 11.9 -0.4 45.2 44.6 10.7 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.4 11.4 -0.6 43.1 40.7 12.0 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.0 6.9 9.4 -0.7 36.4 39.0 6.6 8.3 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.5 9.2 -0.6 37.0 39.4 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.5 7.6 -0.6 39.3 41.3 7.9 9.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.1 12.0 -0.3 48.4 45.9 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.9 7.5 -0.5 39.1 41.4 2.6 3.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.2 9.6 -0.6 39.8 40.3 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.0 8.2 -0.5 40.0 41.6 9.6 11.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.1 8.8 -0.6 38.2 39.7 9.7 10.3 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.2 8.2 -0.7 35.9 38.7 7.9 8.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.2 7.7 -0.7 34.6 37.5 9.1 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.8 -0.4 39.5 42.2 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.7 9.9 -0.6 40.0 39.9 10.5 10.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.1 8.5 -0.7 36.1 38.5 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.4 11.9 -0.2 48.9 47.8 10.7 11.5 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.2 7.6 -0.3 39.3 43.1 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 11.7 -0.4 43.9 43.6 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.8 5.9 -0.4 40.5 43.2 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.3 10.7 -0.7 39.4 39.6 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.4 11.6 -0.3 43.7 45.3 10.0 10.5 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.4 11.2 -0.5 42.2 42.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.3 9.5 -0.4 39.8 42.1 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.4 10.1 -0.7 39.8 40.1 10.2 10.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 8.6 9.1 7.7 -1.0 32.9 32.8 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.3 11.0 -0.5 42.3 42.1 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.9 9.6 -0.7 36.1 38.8 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.3 7.1 -0.2 41.4 45.2 7.0 8.1 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.2 11.9 -0.5 44.8 43.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------