***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.6 9.6 -1.5 31.9 31.1 8.7 10.3 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 8.5 8.9 9.4 -1.5 29.8 29.7 9.1 9.7 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 10.2 9.9 9.3 -1.6 28.9 28.0 10.2 12.0 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 4.8 4.7 6.4 -2.1 22.4 21.7 5.4 6.5 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 6.4 6.3 6.9 -2.0 21.9 22.3 6.8 8.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 5.9 5.4 5.1 -1.6 26.0 26.4 6.1 7.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.4 -1.6 28.3 29.2 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 0.9 1.0 5.3 -1.4 29.6 30.1 1.3 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.7 -1.7 24.5 25.2 8.2 8.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 7.8 7.4 6.0 -1.5 26.6 26.7 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 7.5 7.3 6.6 -1.7 25.5 25.2 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 5.9 6.2 5.9 -1.5 28.5 27.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 6.9 6.9 5.5 -1.9 22.1 21.3 7.3 8.5 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 8.7 8.5 7.4 -1.8 23.0 22.9 9.1 9.9 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 9.1 8.8 7.8 -2.1 21.2 22.0 9.4 10.3 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 7.8 7.7 6.1 -1.9 21.8 21.9 8.5 9.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 9.1 8.9 9.1 -1.4 28.8 29.6 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 6.0 6.0 5.0 -1.7 22.6 23.7 6.4 7.6 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 8.9 9.0 9.3 -1.5 29.3 29.1 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 2.8 3.0 3.1 -1.5 24.5 25.9 3.2 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 7.7 8.2 8.8 -1.7 27.7 26.0 8.3 9.0 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 8.5 8.5 9.1 -1.5 28.0 28.4 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 8.6 9.0 9.0 -1.6 26.8 26.7 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 8.2 8.4 7.2 -1.7 25.0 24.4 8.6 9.5 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.1 -1.8 28.2 27.2 8.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 6.4 6.0 4.8 -2.2 15.2 18.6 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 8.7 8.5 8.8 -1.7 30.6 29.4 8.6 9.9 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 6.6 6.5 6.9 -2.1 20.5 20.8 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 4.8 5.3 4.6 -1.5 24.9 25.9 5.8 6.4 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 8.8 8.8 9.5 -1.6 29.6 29.4 9.0 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------