***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 33.0 37.5 51.4 70.2 29.1 30.6 37.6 46.3 53.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 30.1 34.1 47.7 73.4 33.9 32.8 33.9 45.3 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 29.1 36.1 51.1 70.6 29.4 30.8 37.5 49.3 62.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 48.6 51.9 57.0 70.3 27.4 29.5 55.7 59.1 77.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 38.0 39.1 57.7 75.0 30.2 32.5 41.2 60.3 74.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 41.3 42.6 67.5 79.5 33.6 34.8 42.1 59.2 72.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 24.2 26.3 46.0 70.2 30.0 30.1 26.9 34.0 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 74.1 81.3 64.9 76.6 29.5 33.0 86.1 97.0 116.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 29.7 37.8 59.8 74.9 31.0 32.1 37.9 49.1 67.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 41.5 48.6 67.5 75.2 29.6 32.0 51.8 61.4 76.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 34.1 37.5 58.4 79.2 35.1 35.6 36.3 48.5 60.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 43.4 46.0 56.2 78.5 32.9 35.6 46.0 55.8 65.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 34.7 39.1 64.8 83.3 38.5 39.2 35.4 43.3 60.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 50.3 44.6 72.1 77.6 32.4 33.8 45.0 74.3 88.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 35.0 35.4 45.6 62.5 25.6 26.2 37.8 43.0 52.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 37.0 42.2 59.7 79.7 34.8 36.0 41.7 44.2 61.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 28.8 33.8 46.5 72.5 34.1 33.0 33.7 41.2 60.7 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 46.4 50.2 71.9 75.6 30.1 31.6 51.0 63.0 84.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 40.3 39.0 49.9 75.0 34.6 34.1 38.6 58.0 76.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 43.0 52.2 72.7 79.5 29.1 33.6 54.0 64.9 72.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 31.0 37.9 55.4 73.0 30.0 31.7 38.7 50.3 62.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 33.9 38.7 51.2 77.1 36.5 35.1 31.3 47.4 59.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 30.7 29.7 53.4 76.4 33.0 34.8 29.7 45.1 68.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 41.7 51.7 64.4 74.4 30.8 31.7 52.3 62.8 71.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 35.1 36.9 58.9 71.2 28.7 30.1 39.3 52.4 63.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 38.3 46.0 56.9 82.5 38.4 39.3 41.5 51.7 58.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 35.2 39.2 54.6 69.0 27.9 29.5 41.5 55.5 62.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 33.6 35.2 53.3 68.5 27.5 29.2 36.9 51.4 60.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 60.7 73.1 73.5 77.8 30.2 32.7 76.0 89.3 97.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 29.0 29.5 47.6 71.1 31.5 30.9 30.2 40.8 58.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------