***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.2 11.6 61.5 41.2 36.4 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.8 9.8 61.3 44.5 36.5 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.2 11.5 62.9 39.5 35.4 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.1 12.6 14.8 72.9 49.8 38.8 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.4 14.7 77.1 50.5 40.9 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.2 12.0 18.4 81.5 48.1 41.5 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.7 9.7 58.7 43.7 35.7 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 15.4 25.2 16.9 79.2 49.9 42.2 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.5 10.3 15.2 75.5 46.8 41.1 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.1 11.4 17.5 75.8 46.9 41.4 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.7 10.7 14.9 83.3 51.5 43.3 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.4 15.9 15.0 85.4 54.8 43.3 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.9 15.1 16.6 85.1 53.2 43.1 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.3 13.1 16.1 66.9 42.7 37.8 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.7 8.3 12.0 64.8 46.9 36.9 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.3 14.8 15.8 84.0 52.2 42.4 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.1 9.5 60.2 46.4 37.1 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 14.2 18.1 71.7 44.9 40.2 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.3 10.6 64.5 44.5 36.9 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.0 12.0 17.8 75.8 47.5 40.6 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.8 5.9 13.2 69.3 42.8 38.6 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.8 10.6 62.6 42.5 36.2 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.3 11.8 68.0 46.2 37.8 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.2 10.9 15.2 67.1 43.3 38.3 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.2 14.3 68.9 43.4 38.2 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.4 15.9 14.4 84.2 54.4 42.0 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.7 13.0 63.9 42.4 36.6 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.5 12.8 14.6 72.5 50.0 38.8 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.1 15.4 18.0 72.8 45.7 40.6 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.1 10.1 59.3 42.9 35.2 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------