***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9.1 15.1 11.1 63.7 42.4 36.0 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 6.3 10.3 9.5 61.9 38.6 35.0 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 7.7 12.5 11.8 69.4 46.6 37.1 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 8.0 11.8 13.4 69.9 45.1 38.3 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.7 16.6 14.4 79.1 52.5 39.3 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.1 12.0 17.6 81.8 47.8 42.6 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 4.9 9.9 9.4 59.6 36.6 33.0 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.9 19.0 15.6 76.8 47.3 37.8 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 5.7 11.7 15.8 82.0 53.3 38.7 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.7 14.6 17.2 80.0 49.7 38.3 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.0 13.6 80.0 51.7 40.4 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.6 12.8 73.7 48.7 37.5 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.1 11.0 16.0 81.7 51.9 41.5 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 9.5 18.2 18.1 80.7 48.1 39.2 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.0 11.3 63.7 46.1 38.1 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.4 14.4 78.8 50.3 40.3 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 4.7 7.6 9.0 60.5 38.8 33.7 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.4 13.4 19.2 81.2 47.7 37.1 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 6.9 10.5 10.5 67.0 43.7 36.8 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 9.6 12.6 17.9 78.0 45.2 37.0 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 6.9 12.1 13.6 74.7 49.9 38.8 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 7.5 10.7 10.7 68.9 44.9 38.1 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 7.4 12.8 12.1 75.3 48.1 38.6 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 11.8 15.5 17.1 81.6 48.8 38.5 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 7.4 9.3 13.5 67.3 43.2 36.6 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.4 9.6 13.4 76.5 48.9 39.6 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 7.5 12.5 12.1 63.5 41.7 35.4 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 7.2 12.0 13.2 70.8 45.7 39.1 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 11.4 21.0 19.2 80.5 47.8 37.5 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 8.6 11.1 10.0 62.7 39.8 35.6 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------