***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.4 10.0 15.8 85.8 56.0 44.4 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.3 16.9 99.7 60.2 48.2 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.4 6.7 15.1 80.0 51.6 43.1 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.5 16.3 80.6 53.8 43.7 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.0 6.9 14.2 72.6 47.6 39.8 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.6 15.5 75.2 44.2 38.5 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.5 16.0 94.6 54.9 46.4 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 10.3 13.3 13.0 63.9 40.3 36.0 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.9 5.1 13.7 67.4 43.3 36.7 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.0 7.9 13.3 62.7 39.8 35.5 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.8 14.5 75.3 46.9 41.3 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.8 7.1 12.2 66.9 41.9 36.9 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.2 14.5 73.0 44.1 38.8 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.8 14.5 17.9 76.9 48.0 42.2 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.8 13.7 73.1 52.9 41.9 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.7 6.9 13.7 70.1 42.2 37.8 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.8 10.0 17.3 105.6 59.5 49.7 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.4 10.3 13.9 61.3 36.0 33.7 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.9 16.8 95.9 60.6 47.6 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 4.8 6.9 14.4 64.5 37.3 34.6 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.1 9.2 15.0 78.0 52.5 41.6 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.5 17.6 102.8 59.7 49.2 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.7 13.1 16.2 88.5 59.0 46.6 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.2 8.9 14.7 68.3 40.8 38.4 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.2 17.9 86.0 53.2 44.4 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.7 6.1 13.8 78.2 45.6 39.2 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.1 16.7 83.7 53.1 44.0 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.5 13.4 70.3 49.5 40.5 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.2 15.4 15.0 65.3 38.3 35.7 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.0 15.8 90.4 56.6 46.6 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------