***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 6.8 10.9 12.9 69.5 46.5 40.3 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.1 7.3 11.4 69.1 42.1 39.9 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.5 9.8 12.7 69.7 44.1 38.8 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 7.4 10.2 12.4 58.6 33.8 31.0 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.8 6.3 14.4 71.5 42.5 37.4 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.3 9.4 15.9 79.3 43.5 40.7 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 5.3 5.9 11.0 66.9 40.7 39.3 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.9 25.5 19.5 86.4 48.7 43.8 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.0 8.3 15.1 75.4 44.7 39.1 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.3 11.7 19.5 81.7 48.0 41.8 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.8 9.2 15.4 78.2 47.4 41.0 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.7 13.0 16.3 88.0 50.4 44.4 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.4 17.8 93.8 56.0 48.5 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.1 15.0 20.1 86.7 48.8 43.7 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.7 6.0 8.5 47.7 36.4 29.5 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.4 11.6 15.9 86.2 50.6 44.6 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 5.3 5.3 10.6 62.5 39.4 37.8 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 10.0 20.7 87.7 49.8 43.6 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.8 14.3 12.0 70.9 42.3 39.9 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 14.1 22.7 99.8 55.8 48.9 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.3 8.6 13.6 70.2 43.9 38.1 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.2 8.2 12.3 72.9 45.7 41.2 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 6.2 8.8 13.2 73.1 42.6 39.7 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.1 9.7 17.3 81.2 46.7 41.6 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 5.6 9.8 13.2 62.5 40.3 35.5 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.2 15.4 91.4 54.5 48.2 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 6.5 10.6 12.8 64.8 43.5 37.8 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.0 8.8 12.1 60.5 38.3 33.0 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 16.1 21.4 92.5 51.2 45.8 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.7 9.3 11.8 70.7 43.9 40.3 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------