***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 23.9 24.6 22.7 1.0 72.1 64.6 22.4 23.7 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.6 22.4 0.6 63.7 58.8 22.5 24.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.8 22.9 0.9 68.7 63.0 22.6 24.1 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.6 20.1 1.1 75.8 66.1 15.6 17.0 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.9 20.8 0.8 68.1 62.0 22.9 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.3 18.6 1.0 72.7 63.8 21.3 22.7 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.1 22.4 0.6 64.0 59.2 22.2 23.4 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.2 18.8 0.7 65.3 59.3 11.1 12.1 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 24.2 24.5 21.4 0.9 70.1 63.3 22.2 23.5 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.1 19.8 0.9 68.0 61.9 22.1 23.2 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.3 20.8 0.7 65.3 60.3 22.5 23.6 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.4 20.1 0.7 65.5 59.2 21.7 22.8 23.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.4 19.9 0.6 64.7 58.5 22.6 23.8 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.7 20.9 0.7 66.7 60.4 22.5 23.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 24.7 25.3 22.1 1.4 77.6 69.1 23.1 23.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.9 20.3 0.7 66.5 60.5 23.1 24.4 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.7 22.0 0.4 60.2 56.1 21.9 23.0 24.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.6 19.1 0.8 67.5 61.4 21.8 23.1 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.2 22.5 0.6 64.3 59.0 22.3 23.4 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.5 16.4 0.5 63.5 57.5 17.2 18.1 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.5 22.2 0.8 68.5 62.2 22.5 23.8 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.3 21.8 0.4 61.6 56.5 22.4 23.8 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.6 22.5 0.6 65.4 59.6 22.8 24.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.2 21.1 0.9 69.6 63.3 22.1 23.4 24.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.6 21.0 0.8 69.6 62.7 22.4 24.0 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.4 19.4 0.7 65.0 59.9 22.1 23.1 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 23.7 24.5 21.9 0.9 70.1 63.6 22.4 23.4 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 24.6 25.1 20.9 1.3 77.2 67.6 22.8 23.9 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.4 18.0 0.6 65.0 58.4 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.3 22.6 0.7 66.0 61.1 22.3 23.6 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------