***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.7 23.5 1.5 71.1 60.8 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.0 23.3 1.2 68.3 58.7 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.2 23.7 1.5 70.2 60.3 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.8 19.8 21.3 1.5 69.9 60.9 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.8 26.9 21.6 1.3 67.6 59.2 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 24.5 25.2 19.4 1.3 68.2 59.6 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 21.6 25.4 23.2 1.3 68.3 59.0 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.2 19.8 1.1 65.4 57.6 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.8 21.9 1.4 68.3 59.4 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 25.8 26.0 20.6 1.3 67.6 59.0 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 25.4 26.2 21.5 1.2 67.3 58.8 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 20.7 24.4 21.1 1.1 66.3 58.1 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 25.7 26.4 20.3 1.1 67.6 58.3 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 21.8 26.0 21.4 1.2 67.6 57.9 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 26.3 27.4 22.6 1.7 74.3 63.1 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.9 21.0 1.3 68.1 59.4 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 21.4 24.8 22.9 1.1 65.8 57.5 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 25.1 25.5 20.0 1.3 68.0 59.0 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.7 25.3 23.4 1.3 68.2 58.7 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 20.4 19.8 17.1 0.9 64.1 56.3 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.1 22.8 1.4 69.3 59.6 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.7 22.7 1.1 64.4 57.5 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 21.9 25.8 23.3 1.3 67.1 58.5 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.5 21.7 1.5 69.5 60.1 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.1 21.7 1.4 69.5 60.2 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.2 20.5 1.2 67.6 59.1 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.6 22.7 1.5 70.6 60.6 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.5 21.7 1.6 72.0 62.0 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 20.5 20.0 18.8 1.1 65.9 57.2 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.1 23.4 1.3 69.7 59.5 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------