***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 25.5 26.4 24.1 2.6 79.5 69.6 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 25.5 26.0 23.3 1.7 70.2 63.3 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 25.6 26.6 24.3 2.6 79.5 69.5 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 18.4 20.1 21.8 3.2 87.2 74.9 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 25.9 27.2 22.8 3.0 84.0 73.7 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 24.2 26.5 21.6 4.2 90.3 81.8 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 25.2 25.7 23.2 1.7 70.6 63.8 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 13.5 15.1 21.1 3.2 83.3 75.3 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 25.2 26.5 23.5 3.0 83.2 73.4 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 24.8 26.1 22.0 3.3 84.7 75.0 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 24.9 26.1 23.2 3.2 83.7 74.4 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 24.3 25.2 22.2 3.2 83.1 75.3 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 25.2 26.5 22.5 3.3 84.3 75.9 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.5 25.7 22.3 2.2 74.7 67.3 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 26.0 27.3 24.0 3.3 88.6 75.6 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 25.9 27.5 22.7 3.4 85.7 76.0 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.6 24.9 22.6 1.3 66.8 60.3 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 24.3 25.5 21.1 3.1 81.8 73.8 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 25.0 25.5 23.4 1.8 71.8 63.9 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 19.6 20.9 18.6 2.9 82.2 74.1 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 25.2 26.5 24.0 2.8 80.5 71.3 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.2 25.7 22.4 1.2 65.7 59.8 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 25.5 26.0 23.6 2.0 74.0 65.4 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.7 22.9 2.9 80.8 71.8 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.9 22.6 2.5 80.3 70.0 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 24.7 26.3 21.9 3.6 84.1 78.1 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 25.1 26.1 23.3 2.5 79.0 69.3 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 25.9 27.4 23.0 3.6 89.2 77.4 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 19.5 20.3 20.0 2.8 79.9 72.7 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 25.4 25.9 23.7 2.0 73.5 65.7 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------