***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.3 20.4 18.9 -1.3 35.8 37.3 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.9 20.6 18.9 -1.6 35.6 35.3 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.9 20.4 18.7 -1.7 32.4 34.1 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 13.7 15.4 -1.4 35.0 36.3 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 20.6 19.9 16.4 -2.1 28.2 30.2 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 18.8 18.5 13.7 -2.4 26.8 27.8 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.1 18.7 -1.6 35.1 34.7 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 7.5 7.3 14.0 -2.4 25.4 27.6 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.7 19.9 17.5 -1.9 32.6 32.5 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 19.7 19.9 15.3 -2.2 29.1 30.2 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 19.4 19.5 16.6 -2.4 25.4 28.1 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 18.5 18.6 15.0 -2.5 24.1 26.6 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 19.2 19.2 15.7 -2.8 20.1 23.8 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.4 20.4 17.4 -1.6 33.9 34.7 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.2 18.6 -1.2 38.9 39.4 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 20.1 19.9 15.8 -2.6 23.5 26.2 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.9 19.8 18.3 -1.7 33.8 34.0 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 19.0 19.0 14.3 -2.2 27.6 30.1 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.3 19.6 18.8 -1.7 34.8 34.8 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 14.0 13.6 12.0 -2.5 24.5 26.4 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.2 20.0 18.2 -1.9 30.4 31.5 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.8 20.4 18.4 -1.6 34.2 34.8 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.8 20.5 18.7 -1.7 32.7 34.4 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 19.9 20.2 17.1 -1.8 30.7 33.0 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.1 17.2 -1.8 30.6 32.4 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 18.7 18.7 14.1 -2.7 22.5 25.0 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.2 20.7 18.1 -1.5 33.3 34.6 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.5 20.8 16.6 -1.5 35.3 36.0 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 14.0 13.2 13.5 -2.3 24.8 28.2 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.6 20.1 19.0 -1.5 35.5 36.0 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------