***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.7 12.2 -0.1 50.7 48.9 11.1 11.7 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.3 11.8 -0.2 47.5 47.4 11.1 11.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 12.5 13.3 12.3 0.0 53.0 50.9 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.5 9.6 0.1 54.9 51.2 7.4 8.3 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.1 10.0 0.0 52.7 49.9 9.6 10.0 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.2 7.9 0.3 61.4 56.6 8.3 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.5 11.9 -0.1 49.0 47.9 11.1 11.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.0 7.6 -0.1 50.8 48.7 3.1 4.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.2 11.0 10.2 0.0 53.5 50.2 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.7 8.5 0.0 52.8 50.4 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.7 9.5 0.0 52.7 50.2 9.9 10.7 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.8 8.5 0.0 52.2 49.2 8.3 8.6 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.2 8.3 0.0 54.3 51.2 9.3 10.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.4 9.9 -0.1 49.3 49.2 11.0 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.8 11.3 0.3 62.2 56.1 11.2 11.5 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.1 9.0 0.0 53.0 50.4 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.2 11.7 11.5 -0.2 45.3 46.5 11.5 11.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.4 9.2 7.8 0.1 52.4 51.7 8.6 9.2 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.3 11.9 -0.1 48.4 47.7 11.0 11.3 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.5 5.8 0.0 50.4 49.0 4.7 5.5 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.7 11.5 0.0 52.3 50.1 10.3 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.5 -0.2 47.2 47.5 10.3 10.9 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 10.5 10.7 11.7 -0.1 48.4 47.7 10.5 10.9 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.9 9.9 0.1 53.7 52.6 10.3 10.8 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.0 10.9 -0.2 45.3 45.1 10.7 11.2 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.0 7.9 0.1 57.3 53.0 9.2 9.9 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.8 11.6 -0.1 48.8 47.6 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.9 10.3 0.3 61.6 55.4 9.3 9.8 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.9 7.0 -0.1 49.5 48.3 7.5 8.0 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.7 12.1 -0.1 50.4 48.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------