***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 11.2 13.0 13.9 0.4 56.7 55.2 11.5 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.2 13.4 13.8 0.5 58.9 55.3 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.9 15.0 14.1 0.5 61.9 57.1 13.1 14.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 9.8 11.4 0.4 57.9 56.1 7.6 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.3 11.4 0.3 56.9 55.4 10.4 10.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 9.4 0.5 62.0 58.1 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.2 13.8 0.5 60.5 55.1 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.5 9.2 0.3 55.9 54.2 3.3 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.2 11.6 0.3 57.7 55.7 11.1 11.5 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 10.0 0.4 57.7 55.0 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.8 10.8 0.3 56.3 55.0 10.9 11.5 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 10.0 0.3 56.5 54.7 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.7 9.4 0.3 55.8 54.1 10.2 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.1 11.6 0.5 58.8 56.1 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.6 13.3 12.8 0.6 61.6 58.7 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.8 10.2 0.3 57.2 55.0 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.4 13.5 0.5 59.1 55.3 11.9 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 9.3 0.4 59.3 55.8 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 0.5 58.8 56.0 11.5 12.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.9 7.1 0.3 55.7 53.3 5.5 6.7 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.3 13.0 0.3 56.4 55.4 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.4 13.4 0.5 61.0 56.5 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.9 13.7 0.5 59.1 56.9 11.2 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.6 11.5 0.5 61.0 57.6 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.9 12.5 12.3 0.2 54.3 53.6 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.2 9.2 0.3 56.3 55.2 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.3 13.1 13.1 0.4 56.8 55.1 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.1 11.8 0.5 61.1 57.9 10.0 10.9 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 8.7 0.4 57.3 54.9 7.6 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.4 13.5 14.0 0.5 59.2 55.7 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------