***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.9 13.1 0.5 59.6 52.9 11.2 12.0 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.7 12.7 0.5 58.8 52.8 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 13.2 0.6 60.5 54.7 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.8 10.6 0.5 57.4 53.9 7.1 8.6 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.2 10.6 0.4 56.5 53.5 10.1 10.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.4 8.9 0.8 63.8 58.0 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.0 12.8 0.5 59.3 53.3 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.4 8.5 0.4 54.4 53.3 3.4 4.2 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 10.8 0.4 56.8 54.0 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.0 9.2 0.4 54.7 53.8 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.6 10.0 0.4 56.4 54.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.0 9.3 0.4 57.3 54.4 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.4 8.8 0.5 58.6 54.9 10.2 11.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 10.5 0.2 54.8 51.4 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.0 12.0 0.7 63.7 56.7 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.5 9.6 0.5 58.2 55.0 11.0 11.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 12.5 0.4 58.3 52.0 11.1 12.6 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.1 8.5 0.4 55.5 53.8 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.6 12.8 0.4 58.4 52.7 11.2 12.2 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.3 6.3 0.3 53.4 51.8 5.2 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.9 12.2 0.4 57.1 53.8 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 12.2 0.4 57.3 51.6 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.0 12.6 0.4 57.4 52.8 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 10.5 0.5 59.0 54.6 11.0 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.2 11.5 0.3 54.9 51.3 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.2 8.7 0.6 60.8 55.7 9.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 12.4 0.4 58.0 52.5 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.7 11.4 11.0 0.7 62.0 56.4 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.6 7.8 0.3 54.7 52.3 7.7 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.0 13.0 0.5 60.0 53.5 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------