***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.8 13.1 1.2 70.5 62.2 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.0 12.3 0.7 62.1 56.8 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.1 14.4 13.0 1.1 70.4 61.4 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.9 10.5 1.3 74.4 65.0 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.7 11.1 1.3 75.2 66.0 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 9.5 10.3 9.0 1.8 84.0 74.8 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.6 12.4 0.8 62.5 57.2 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.5 8.4 1.2 74.0 66.3 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 11.6 12.1 10.9 1.1 72.2 64.4 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 11.1 11.2 9.2 1.2 73.4 65.6 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.5 10.3 1.1 73.5 65.1 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.5 10.0 9.5 1.3 75.8 67.5 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.5 9.6 1.5 80.2 70.8 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.1 10.5 0.9 69.7 60.1 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.5 12.1 1.5 80.2 67.3 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.2 10.1 1.4 78.0 68.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.8 11.9 0.5 58.2 54.5 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 9.5 9.6 8.7 1.3 73.7 65.5 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.5 12.3 0.7 62.2 56.9 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 5.8 6.1 7.0 1.5 77.7 69.9 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.3 11.5 12.2 1.1 71.3 63.4 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.6 11.8 0.5 57.2 54.5 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.6 12.2 0.7 63.7 57.2 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.4 10.6 1.1 72.6 62.7 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.7 12.0 1.2 70.0 62.8 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 10.9 11.6 9.4 1.9 82.6 74.1 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.2 12.7 1.3 71.1 63.0 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.9 11.2 1.6 79.7 68.3 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 8.9 8.8 7.9 1.1 71.4 64.8 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.7 12.7 0.8 65.3 58.7 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------