***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.9 -2.2 24.4 24.0 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.2 8.6 -2.3 19.6 21.7 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 10.2 9.7 9.0 -2.1 24.3 25.0 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.6 6.1 -2.0 22.4 24.6 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 6.5 6.0 7.0 -2.1 21.9 22.9 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 5.3 5.2 4.3 -2.0 25.5 24.7 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 8.5 8.1 8.6 -2.3 18.3 21.2 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 0.2 0.0 4.2 -2.1 17.7 20.0 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 7.7 7.7 7.5 -1.9 23.4 25.1 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 7.9 7.5 5.4 -1.9 20.9 23.1 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 7.2 7.3 6.8 -1.9 22.2 23.1 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 5.8 5.5 5.2 -2.3 16.6 19.8 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 6.6 6.4 5.6 -2.1 19.2 21.1 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 8.8 8.6 7.0 -1.9 21.7 24.0 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.8 9.0 8.5 -1.5 29.6 30.1 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 7.8 7.6 6.0 -2.2 19.6 21.0 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 9.0 8.7 8.3 -2.3 18.6 20.9 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 5.8 5.7 4.8 -1.9 21.3 24.1 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 8.8 8.8 8.6 -2.2 20.7 22.3 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 2.4 2.2 2.7 -2.2 16.8 19.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 7.7 7.2 8.5 -1.9 24.0 25.6 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 8.4 8.2 8.6 -2.0 20.9 22.9 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.4 -2.2 20.1 21.7 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 8.5 8.2 7.2 -1.7 23.1 26.1 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 7.8 7.5 7.6 -2.6 15.8 18.7 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 6.3 6.1 4.4 -2.3 19.6 21.4 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 7.7 7.5 8.3 -2.5 21.0 21.6 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 6.3 6.9 7.1 -1.7 27.2 28.4 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 4.7 4.4 3.8 -2.1 18.0 20.2 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.9 -2.2 22.2 22.9 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------