***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 50.9 60.8 71.9 132.2 73.3 63.0 37.6 46.3 53.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 50.8 65.8 68.9 125.0 71.2 61.6 33.9 45.3 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 55.1 73.4 71.1 129.8 73.3 63.0 37.5 49.3 62.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 67.3 86.8 83.5 127.1 74.4 62.2 55.7 59.1 77.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 65.1 79.5 81.4 127.4 74.5 62.2 41.2 60.3 74.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 66.5 72.9 100.6 119.7 69.0 60.4 42.1 59.2 72.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.4 56.5 68.3 120.4 68.5 60.2 26.9 34.0 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 108.4 116.2 83.2 115.0 66.0 59.4 86.1 97.0 116.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 55.4 73.2 79.9 126.4 72.8 61.8 37.9 49.1 67.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 69.1 93.3 89.3 119.8 71.8 61.2 51.8 61.4 76.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 60.8 65.4 73.4 125.0 73.0 61.6 36.3 48.5 60.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 60.0 69.7 68.2 119.2 68.7 59.8 46.0 55.8 65.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 50.9 65.9 81.2 120.6 71.9 60.3 35.4 43.3 60.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 52.9 99.1 87.0 125.2 74.7 62.1 45.0 74.3 88.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 57.1 62.4 75.5 121.1 74.8 59.3 37.8 43.0 52.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 63.4 67.8 77.1 124.0 71.8 61.4 41.7 44.2 61.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 47.4 66.5 65.7 119.3 68.1 59.1 33.7 41.2 60.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 84.3 90.4 100.9 119.5 72.3 62.8 51.0 63.0 84.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 63.9 83.8 68.4 128.0 72.5 62.2 38.6 58.0 76.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 83.7 73.1 101.5 112.1 66.6 59.6 54.0 64.9 72.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 54.0 65.3 72.3 129.7 73.8 61.4 38.7 50.3 62.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 55.0 68.1 64.3 120.9 70.6 59.1 31.3 47.4 59.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 52.4 74.2 69.1 128.5 72.8 62.3 29.7 45.1 68.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 78.3 81.9 87.7 124.3 73.5 62.9 52.3 62.8 71.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 57.1 68.0 87.0 128.5 73.3 62.1 39.3 52.4 63.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 56.6 61.8 71.0 117.8 67.7 59.8 41.5 51.7 58.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 60.0 70.4 83.7 129.9 73.1 63.0 41.5 55.5 62.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 61.1 63.2 79.3 124.0 74.0 60.9 36.9 51.4 60.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 105.4 104.2 101.0 118.2 70.4 61.9 76.0 89.3 97.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 47.3 67.5 70.3 128.2 72.7 62.9 30.2 40.8 58.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------