***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.6 13.3 15.5 127.1 76.4 60.6 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 17.1 21.6 17.3 130.5 75.9 58.4 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.0 17.9 17.6 139.6 76.6 60.7 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 23.1 29.1 18.8 136.8 75.1 61.4 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.1 17.2 19.9 150.0 78.5 62.4 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.9 24.9 25.0 139.2 74.7 61.1 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 9.5 16.6 124.7 72.5 57.7 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 36.6 41.6 22.3 137.1 75.6 60.9 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 17.2 20.3 20.6 151.0 78.7 62.7 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 23.1 30.0 24.0 145.7 78.0 62.6 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.5 19.0 18.1 149.7 77.7 61.2 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 19.9 22.6 17.6 144.4 77.8 60.1 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.5 26.3 21.4 150.9 79.5 61.1 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.6 28.5 22.4 139.1 74.1 60.5 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.7 16.0 125.5 74.1 60.9 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.3 22.1 19.0 151.9 78.0 61.7 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 13.3 12.0 15.7 123.6 72.4 57.9 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 20.6 24.8 27.6 146.8 79.1 63.5 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 16.6 17.1 132.9 77.0 58.9 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 20.2 21.4 27.9 136.0 74.0 61.9 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.5 15.4 17.1 139.2 75.1 61.1 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.0 15.0 121.0 73.5 56.6 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.8 15.4 17.1 132.5 77.5 59.6 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 18.6 23.3 23.3 147.2 79.0 62.5 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.9 17.8 19.3 124.6 75.7 60.1 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.7 21.2 18.0 149.3 76.0 60.9 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.8 18.8 125.5 76.4 60.5 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 18.3 21.5 18.2 138.2 76.3 62.5 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 30.3 34.9 27.6 147.7 77.7 63.3 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.6 13.2 17.5 133.8 76.0 59.5 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------