***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.0 22.8 16.6 127.3 68.9 55.8 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.3 16.0 112.0 62.2 49.8 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.7 14.4 14.9 111.5 64.4 52.1 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.3 25.1 20.4 125.0 69.6 57.0 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.7 25.2 19.4 121.7 70.2 56.4 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 19.0 23.3 111.6 63.5 52.7 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.5 15.9 16.3 109.1 64.4 50.6 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 25.4 30.4 18.3 98.6 62.0 51.5 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.4 16.6 18.1 113.7 69.5 54.1 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.4 24.0 19.5 102.2 64.8 52.3 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 18.4 16.9 118.1 68.9 56.0 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.0 18.4 15.4 109.2 66.8 53.4 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.0 18.8 19.2 116.9 71.6 54.7 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.1 22.2 17.8 103.0 59.5 49.2 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 17.3 17.5 114.7 65.7 53.8 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.0 16.2 18.5 123.1 70.8 56.7 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.5 16.8 118.5 67.4 50.8 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 20.9 21.7 99.8 66.0 50.7 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 19.9 15.1 112.5 61.5 49.7 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 10.9 19.1 22.7 95.4 61.7 49.0 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.5 19.8 15.9 118.5 69.8 54.2 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.2 14.6 16.1 123.5 67.9 51.8 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.1 13.9 106.0 58.8 49.1 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.1 24.8 18.5 104.8 65.8 51.1 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.6 22.2 21.2 131.5 70.3 57.1 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.6 17.2 118.6 68.0 55.6 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.2 19.9 20.1 129.4 69.3 56.4 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.6 18.1 18.8 117.8 68.0 54.9 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 26.9 31.8 21.5 97.1 62.2 50.0 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.4 15.5 15.8 111.6 62.8 51.3 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------