***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.6 14.0 16.6 129.8 71.3 56.2 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 12.4 15.3 115.0 67.1 53.4 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.0 24.5 17.0 136.2 74.0 57.2 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.4 27.7 21.3 143.7 75.5 60.7 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.1 17.2 19.7 132.3 72.1 59.5 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.7 27.8 121.6 69.2 57.3 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 7.8 15.2 109.8 64.9 52.0 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 22.4 22.9 22.1 129.4 72.6 60.6 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 17.1 16.3 18.9 125.9 71.8 58.6 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.4 17.9 23.2 131.8 73.4 60.9 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.7 18.7 135.8 72.7 61.1 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.4 16.9 124.8 70.3 59.3 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.4 20.4 114.6 67.4 57.2 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 21.2 19.7 22.6 139.5 71.2 59.8 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.2 18.0 21.3 145.5 77.1 61.7 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.8 19.5 124.8 69.6 58.8 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.7 14.2 106.0 58.7 51.1 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 21.6 23.4 27.1 131.3 73.6 61.5 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.7 18.3 15.7 124.3 70.8 55.3 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 15.2 28.0 123.4 68.9 59.8 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.7 16.6 129.7 71.1 57.0 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.4 13.2 14.4 111.3 63.2 52.9 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 15.4 19.4 17.0 141.2 75.2 59.0 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.6 23.0 23.0 137.9 74.7 60.3 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.0 17.0 21.9 133.4 69.9 58.0 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.2 16.5 18.1 116.9 65.0 58.5 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.6 20.2 127.4 67.9 56.6 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.5 13.7 20.8 141.6 74.5 60.8 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.9 27.6 128.4 72.1 61.1 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.7 18.2 15.9 123.4 70.2 55.6 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------