***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.2 22.3 23.2 141.8 78.5 60.4 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 15.4 18.9 20.3 142.3 78.7 62.2 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.4 18.6 21.5 132.8 76.1 58.0 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 10.3 23.5 22.9 110.7 65.9 54.6 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.5 16.3 22.3 113.2 66.3 55.7 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.3 17.8 24.4 109.4 63.1 53.2 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.7 21.4 20.3 138.2 78.1 61.0 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.3 28.0 20.6 100.7 58.7 52.2 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.1 22.3 119.8 68.9 57.0 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.0 12.8 22.6 106.1 62.2 54.2 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.1 19.7 106.8 64.4 54.4 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.6 15.2 18.3 105.6 62.3 54.2 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.6 14.9 20.3 107.0 64.3 54.9 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.0 22.7 24.1 121.6 70.9 58.6 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.0 20.6 105.3 61.0 52.8 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.3 13.5 20.1 105.8 63.0 53.7 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.3 31.3 19.0 128.8 75.6 57.8 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 18.9 24.4 105.4 64.9 55.1 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 19.7 27.2 20.6 141.6 78.3 61.5 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.4 14.1 22.9 97.3 56.1 50.6 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.8 20.5 22.6 131.7 73.9 58.6 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.8 20.7 18.9 127.1 73.9 58.1 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.6 25.1 21.2 134.3 74.9 59.3 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.7 21.4 22.9 112.6 67.1 56.4 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 19.8 24.7 125.5 71.1 57.5 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.4 17.7 97.4 61.0 50.4 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 18.8 22.1 24.6 135.9 76.9 60.4 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.8 21.4 106.8 62.3 53.2 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 24.4 24.3 105.1 64.5 55.0 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 19.0 23.2 21.2 143.5 78.7 62.0 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------