***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.4 22.6 -0.4 43.7 44.6 22.4 23.7 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.4 22.7 -0.3 43.7 45.7 22.5 24.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.6 22.8 -0.4 44.5 44.3 22.6 24.1 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.6 16.5 20.9 -0.2 46.5 45.9 15.6 17.0 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.7 21.2 -0.3 46.4 45.4 22.9 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.9 19.4 0.1 54.3 52.2 21.3 22.7 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.8 22.6 -0.4 43.2 44.9 22.2 23.4 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.1 19.8 0.0 52.3 50.9 11.1 12.1 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.3 21.7 -0.3 46.3 44.5 22.2 23.5 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.2 23.1 20.4 -0.2 48.1 47.2 22.1 23.2 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.3 20.9 -0.1 48.1 48.5 22.5 23.6 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.8 20.6 0.0 51.5 50.9 21.7 22.8 23.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 22.5 23.8 20.2 0.0 47.9 50.4 22.6 23.8 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.6 22.8 21.2 -0.6 38.9 40.5 22.5 23.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 22.9 23.7 21.5 -0.2 47.9 47.1 23.1 23.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 23.0 24.2 20.6 0.0 47.3 49.8 23.1 24.4 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.0 22.4 -0.3 46.8 45.1 21.9 23.0 24.0 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.0 19.7 -0.2 47.8 46.5 21.8 23.1 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.7 22.8 -0.3 43.7 45.1 22.3 23.4 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 16.8 18.2 17.7 0.0 55.3 51.2 17.2 18.1 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.6 22.3 -0.4 45.8 43.9 22.5 23.8 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.6 22.3 -0.4 45.9 43.4 22.4 23.8 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.5 22.5 -0.4 43.3 43.0 22.8 24.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.3 22.7 21.2 -0.4 43.5 43.4 22.1 23.4 24.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.7 23.5 21.2 -0.4 43.1 44.0 22.4 24.0 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.6 23.3 20.0 0.1 56.9 52.0 22.1 23.1 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.2 21.9 -0.4 42.8 44.4 22.4 23.4 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 22.9 23.4 21.2 -0.1 47.4 47.8 22.8 23.9 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.7 18.0 18.8 -0.2 50.0 47.7 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.3 22.8 -0.3 43.2 45.5 22.3 23.6 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------