***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 23.3 24.7 24.2 -0.6 42.2 44.4 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.2 24.2 -0.6 42.6 45.1 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.0 24.2 -0.7 42.5 43.9 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.8 16.6 22.7 -0.4 42.9 45.2 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 23.6 24.7 22.7 -0.5 46.0 44.8 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.1 20.7 -0.3 47.8 46.6 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 22.9 24.1 24.2 -0.6 42.2 45.4 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.5 21.0 -0.5 48.8 44.8 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.0 22.9 -0.6 45.7 44.1 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.2 21.7 -0.6 47.7 44.5 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.4 24.9 22.2 -0.5 48.0 45.7 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.0 21.9 -0.5 48.4 45.0 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.2 24.4 21.4 -0.5 47.0 45.1 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 23.1 23.2 22.4 -1.0 40.9 41.7 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 23.8 24.7 23.1 -0.2 44.5 46.8 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.6 22.0 -0.4 48.1 45.8 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.5 24.0 -0.6 41.7 44.9 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 22.4 22.5 20.9 -0.8 44.3 43.7 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.6 24.2 -0.7 43.0 44.7 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 17.4 18.7 18.8 -0.7 46.4 44.3 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.2 23.8 23.7 -0.7 44.1 43.8 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 22.7 24.2 23.9 -0.8 43.2 43.6 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.4 23.9 23.9 -0.8 42.7 43.6 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 22.7 23.2 22.4 -0.9 42.9 43.0 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 23.7 24.4 22.7 -0.5 43.5 44.7 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.3 21.2 -0.6 43.2 44.4 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 23.0 24.1 23.4 -0.6 41.8 44.8 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 23.7 24.6 22.9 -0.3 43.3 45.8 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.4 18.4 19.9 -0.8 44.3 43.6 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.2 24.3 -0.6 43.1 44.9 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------