***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.2 22.5 22.8 -0.9 38.5 41.5 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.3 22.8 -1.0 37.4 41.4 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.6 22.8 -1.1 36.8 40.7 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.6 21.1 -1.0 37.1 41.2 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.3 21.1 -1.1 36.5 40.3 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.4 19.4 -0.7 41.3 43.4 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.7 23.6 22.8 -0.9 39.7 41.8 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.0 19.6 -1.1 36.5 40.3 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.2 21.8 21.5 -1.2 34.9 39.7 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.3 21.5 20.2 -1.2 34.4 39.8 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.6 22.1 20.7 -1.0 37.0 41.0 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.2 20.5 -1.0 37.6 41.4 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.4 20.1 -0.9 39.5 42.8 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 21.6 21.8 21.0 -1.4 33.3 37.8 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.3 22.7 21.5 -0.8 37.5 42.1 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.5 22.7 20.5 -0.9 38.7 42.1 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.9 22.6 -1.0 38.1 41.3 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 20.9 21.2 19.5 -1.3 35.2 39.2 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.6 22.3 22.8 -1.0 36.8 41.0 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.0 16.8 17.4 -1.2 36.5 39.6 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.5 21.8 22.2 -1.1 35.4 40.2 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.6 22.6 22.4 -1.1 35.5 40.1 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 21.6 22.8 22.5 -1.2 36.5 39.9 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.8 21.1 -1.3 35.3 39.2 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 21.7 22.7 21.3 -1.0 37.6 41.3 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.1 22.5 19.9 -0.8 40.8 43.1 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 21.5 23.1 22.0 -0.9 38.5 41.9 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.8 22.1 21.3 -0.9 36.9 41.6 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 15.9 16.3 18.5 -1.3 35.9 39.2 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 22.0 22.7 22.9 -1.0 37.9 41.5 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------