***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 21.4 20.8 20.2 -2.2 17.9 27.4 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 21.6 21.0 20.5 -2.0 20.7 29.4 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 21.9 21.1 20.2 -2.3 17.9 27.5 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 14.1 13.3 18.4 -2.2 17.5 27.2 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 21.5 20.8 18.4 -2.4 17.1 26.7 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 20.4 20.1 16.5 -2.1 20.1 30.1 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 21.4 20.4 20.4 -2.0 19.9 28.9 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 10.0 9.3 16.8 -2.3 17.5 28.6 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 21.0 20.4 18.7 -2.5 17.9 26.4 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 21.0 20.3 17.5 -2.4 17.5 27.4 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 21.3 20.9 17.9 -2.3 18.0 27.7 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 20.8 20.2 17.6 -2.3 18.2 28.6 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 21.5 20.9 17.1 -2.3 18.9 28.8 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 21.0 20.4 18.5 -2.5 17.0 26.1 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 21.3 20.8 18.9 -1.9 21.1 28.9 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 22.0 21.5 17.6 -2.2 18.6 28.3 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 20.4 20.6 20.4 -1.9 22.9 30.1 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 20.7 20.0 16.8 -2.5 17.2 27.3 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 21.3 20.8 20.4 -2.0 20.3 29.0 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 16.2 15.6 14.8 -2.3 17.9 28.8 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 21.1 20.4 19.5 -2.4 17.9 26.4 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 20.9 21.3 20.2 -2.0 23.0 29.3 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 21.4 20.6 20.0 -2.2 18.0 27.8 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 20.9 20.1 18.4 -2.5 17.5 26.6 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 20.9 20.4 18.7 -2.2 19.6 26.6 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 21.1 20.7 17.1 -2.1 18.9 30.8 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 21.1 20.6 19.4 -2.2 18.8 27.4 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 21.4 20.5 18.6 -2.1 19.9 28.1 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 15.6 14.8 15.9 -2.4 17.9 27.6 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 21.5 20.9 20.5 -2.0 19.1 28.8 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------