***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 24.1 24.9 23.4 2.3 84.8 81.0 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 24.0 25.2 23.4 2.3 86.4 81.4 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 24.3 25.4 23.8 2.6 86.8 82.4 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 17.4 18.3 21.3 2.6 83.5 80.5 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 23.7 25.4 22.6 3.0 85.5 82.9 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 23.2 24.0 21.1 3.6 85.5 83.7 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 23.7 24.5 23.0 2.0 82.6 78.5 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 12.3 13.3 21.7 3.9 89.0 86.7 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 23.0 25.7 23.5 3.0 88.5 83.7 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 23.5 25.1 22.3 3.4 88.6 84.7 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 23.6 25.9 22.7 3.3 86.7 84.3 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 22.9 24.5 22.4 3.8 88.5 86.4 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 23.9 25.7 22.3 3.5 86.2 84.6 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 23.8 24.6 22.7 2.7 87.7 81.4 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 23.8 24.5 22.5 2.2 80.4 76.9 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 24.4 25.8 22.5 3.4 86.7 84.3 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 23.3 24.0 22.8 2.1 83.9 79.3 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 22.8 24.6 21.5 3.5 90.6 85.4 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 23.5 24.7 23.5 2.5 87.5 82.4 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 18.5 19.6 19.9 4.1 91.2 88.4 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 23.5 25.4 23.9 2.8 86.8 82.3 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 23.5 24.6 22.8 2.2 85.1 80.5 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 23.8 24.6 23.6 2.5 87.5 82.4 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 23.1 24.9 22.8 3.0 88.6 83.0 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 23.9 24.8 22.2 2.3 84.1 79.2 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 23.4 24.6 21.7 3.8 88.9 86.2 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 23.5 24.5 22.7 2.2 84.1 79.1 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 24.1 25.3 22.2 2.7 83.8 80.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 18.2 19.3 20.9 3.7 90.0 86.4 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 24.0 24.8 23.5 2.4 86.6 81.6 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------