***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.7 12.8 0.1 51.4 52.8 11.1 11.7 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.6 12.8 0.1 57.2 54.8 11.1 11.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.4 12.6 0.2 55.4 55.3 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.7 10.6 0.2 57.5 56.9 7.4 8.3 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 10.6 0.2 58.2 56.6 9.6 10.0 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.4 8.8 0.3 66.1 59.8 8.3 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.6 12.8 0.1 55.7 53.6 11.1 11.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 4.4 4.4 8.8 0.3 67.5 60.9 3.1 4.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.1 11.0 0.2 59.4 56.5 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.2 9.5 0.3 65.7 60.2 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.9 10.1 0.2 61.8 57.4 9.9 10.7 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.2 9.6 0.3 66.5 59.6 8.3 8.6 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.6 9.2 0.3 67.3 59.2 9.3 10.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.6 10.9 0.2 56.7 56.0 11.0 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.8 11.3 0.3 61.8 58.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.6 9.9 0.2 62.7 57.9 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.0 12.5 0.1 56.5 54.0 11.5 11.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 8.7 0.3 63.5 60.1 8.6 9.2 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 12.7 0.2 56.8 55.3 11.0 11.3 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 6.9 0.3 62.8 58.4 4.7 5.5 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.0 12.0 0.2 55.6 55.0 10.3 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.0 12.5 0.1 58.1 54.4 10.3 10.9 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.3 12.3 0.2 55.5 55.1 10.5 10.9 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.0 10.7 0.2 58.1 57.1 10.3 10.8 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.2 11.3 0.1 51.4 53.0 10.7 11.2 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.1 9.3 0.3 70.1 60.7 9.2 9.9 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.8 12.0 0.0 50.7 52.3 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.9 11.0 0.3 60.0 58.0 9.3 9.8 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.6 8.0 0.2 63.6 57.7 7.5 8.0 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.8 12.9 0.1 57.4 54.5 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------