***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.6 14.2 -0.1 47.4 48.6 11.5 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.6 14.3 -0.1 48.2 49.5 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.5 14.1 -0.1 47.3 48.8 13.1 14.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.4 12.1 0.0 46.9 48.9 7.6 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.7 12.0 -0.1 47.1 48.1 10.4 10.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.9 10.2 -0.1 46.8 49.4 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.0 14.3 -0.1 48.2 49.4 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.1 10.1 0.0 47.4 49.9 3.3 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.5 12.3 -0.1 47.3 48.6 11.1 11.5 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.8 10.7 -0.1 47.7 49.0 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.4 11.5 -0.1 45.8 47.8 10.9 11.5 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.8 10.9 -0.1 46.2 48.9 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.1 10.4 -0.2 44.3 46.8 10.2 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.4 12.4 12.2 -0.2 44.1 46.9 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 12.7 0.1 51.0 51.3 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.9 11.2 -0.2 44.6 47.2 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.6 14.0 -0.2 46.9 48.9 11.9 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.4 10.0 -0.1 47.2 48.6 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.6 14.2 -0.1 48.0 49.5 11.5 12.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.5 8.2 -0.1 47.3 48.7 5.5 6.7 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.6 13.4 -0.1 46.2 48.7 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.9 13.8 -0.2 46.3 48.1 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.5 13.8 -0.1 46.4 48.5 11.2 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.6 12.0 -0.1 45.4 48.0 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.1 12.7 -0.1 48.6 49.4 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.6 10.6 -0.2 46.9 46.8 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.7 13.5 -0.1 48.3 49.1 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.6 12.4 0.0 46.8 49.0 10.0 10.9 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.5 8.8 9.3 -0.2 46.8 47.9 7.6 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.6 14.4 -0.1 48.1 49.4 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------