***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.9 12.6 -0.7 44.3 41.8 11.2 12.0 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.6 12.6 -0.7 42.9 41.0 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.2 12.3 -0.7 43.1 41.1 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.8 7.3 10.3 -0.8 37.0 40.4 7.1 8.6 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.3 10.1 -0.8 37.4 39.6 10.1 10.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.6 8.6 -0.6 43.4 43.0 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.8 12.6 -0.7 44.0 40.9 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.6 8.4 -0.7 39.3 40.7 3.4 4.2 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.2 10.5 -0.8 38.4 40.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.1 9.0 -0.8 39.3 40.5 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.2 9.7 -0.8 39.7 39.7 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.5 9.2 9.2 -0.8 37.0 40.0 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.4 8.7 -0.8 35.3 40.3 10.2 11.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 11.0 11.3 10.3 -1.1 32.5 36.4 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.5 12.2 10.9 -0.6 41.0 43.3 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.3 9.4 -0.8 38.9 40.2 11.0 11.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.0 12.3 -0.8 40.1 40.4 11.1 12.6 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 9.0 9.6 8.2 -0.9 37.5 39.4 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.6 12.4 -0.8 41.4 40.5 11.2 12.2 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.4 6.5 -0.8 38.9 40.6 5.2 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 -0.8 39.9 40.6 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.6 10.7 12.2 -0.9 37.1 39.4 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.3 11.9 -0.9 37.2 38.9 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.1 10.2 -0.9 36.7 38.3 11.0 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.9 -0.8 38.5 40.7 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.1 8.9 -0.8 37.8 40.7 9.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.9 11.8 -0.7 41.7 41.4 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.1 10.6 -0.7 39.2 41.6 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.7 7.9 7.5 -0.9 35.8 39.3 7.7 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.2 11.9 12.7 -0.7 44.6 41.5 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------