***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 10.0 9.6 10.6 -1.3 20.2 31.4 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 10.2 10.1 10.8 -1.2 25.3 33.4 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 11.6 11.6 10.5 -1.2 24.6 33.8 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 6.6 6.5 8.6 -1.1 25.6 34.7 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 8.8 8.7 8.4 -1.1 25.7 34.9 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 7.6 7.8 6.8 -1.0 28.8 36.6 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 10.1 9.7 10.8 -1.3 22.9 32.8 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.6 6.7 -1.0 26.1 36.8 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 9.5 9.6 8.8 -1.0 28.6 35.9 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 9.6 9.6 7.3 -0.9 29.2 37.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 9.3 9.2 7.9 -1.1 23.6 34.8 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 7.6 7.4 7.5 -1.0 23.9 35.0 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.9 8.7 7.1 -1.0 26.5 34.7 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 10.1 9.8 8.8 -1.0 28.1 35.6 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.5 9.4 -0.8 30.8 37.3 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 10.0 9.8 7.7 -1.0 23.3 34.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.6 -1.2 27.7 33.8 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.8 7.9 6.7 -0.9 32.4 38.1 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 10.2 10.1 10.7 -1.1 26.5 34.3 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.9 -1.0 27.9 36.5 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.6 9.6 9.8 -1.1 27.6 34.7 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 9.3 9.8 10.5 -1.1 30.0 34.9 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 9.6 9.8 10.3 -1.0 26.5 35.3 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 9.7 9.5 8.6 -1.0 29.5 36.2 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 9.9 9.9 9.1 -1.2 25.3 33.8 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 8.5 8.3 7.2 -1.1 22.4 34.6 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 10.1 10.2 9.9 -1.3 23.2 32.5 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.9 -1.0 27.9 35.1 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 6.7 7.0 6.1 -0.9 30.6 37.8 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 10.1 9.9 10.8 -1.2 23.7 33.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------