***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 12.1 13.3 13.7 2.4 89.9 83.8 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 11.7 13.7 13.5 2.6 91.6 88.0 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 13.2 14.6 13.6 2.7 93.3 88.3 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 8.1 9.7 11.4 2.7 93.1 88.3 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 10.1 12.7 11.9 2.8 95.7 91.2 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 9.1 10.7 9.8 2.9 95.7 92.4 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 11.9 12.9 13.4 2.4 90.7 85.7 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 4.3 6.3 10.1 3.2 97.2 94.4 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 11.0 12.5 12.3 2.8 96.0 92.1 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 10.9 12.5 10.8 3.1 97.8 94.5 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 10.1 12.3 11.3 2.8 96.7 92.9 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 8.8 10.1 10.6 3.0 96.8 93.6 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 9.7 12.3 10.5 3.0 98.8 94.1 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 10.8 12.4 12.3 3.1 95.8 93.7 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.3 12.6 12.4 2.4 91.1 86.0 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 11.9 13.5 11.1 2.9 96.6 93.2 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 12.1 12.9 13.2 2.6 93.0 89.2 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 8.7 10.5 9.9 3.1 97.4 95.1 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 12.0 12.6 13.5 2.7 92.0 88.9 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.6 7.5 7.8 3.0 97.6 95.3 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 10.8 12.5 13.3 2.7 94.2 89.0 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 11.1 12.6 13.3 2.7 94.9 90.8 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 11.5 12.0 13.3 2.7 92.7 90.1 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 10.5 12.1 12.0 2.9 95.7 92.9 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 11.3 12.8 12.4 2.3 87.8 82.7 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 9.7 10.9 10.6 3.4 96.6 92.4 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 12.9 14.3 12.9 2.3 86.0 82.2 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 9.5 11.1 11.9 2.7 93.4 89.3 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.4 9.1 2.9 97.0 94.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 11.7 13.5 13.7 2.5 91.1 87.0 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------