***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 34.0 38.2 50.7 78.2 38.9 36.1 37.6 45.8 51.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 30.4 35.2 45.4 76.5 38.7 36.6 34.3 44.4 60.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 29.0 40.3 49.1 74.2 36.3 34.8 39.7 47.5 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 42.2 45.8 51.4 68.0 28.6 29.8 55.7 58.5 72.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 34.8 38.4 50.6 70.1 31.0 31.5 38.5 54.0 74.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 35.4 33.1 57.6 66.8 21.5 26.0 40.3 59.2 72.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 25.0 27.6 46.9 79.3 38.9 37.2 25.4 34.0 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 72.0 85.7 57.5 69.9 27.9 30.4 88.2 94.8 118.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 29.9 37.6 52.8 71.1 31.5 32.6 37.7 46.4 55.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 40.7 48.0 60.2 70.5 29.4 31.3 50.7 60.3 74.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 28.8 29.0 48.7 69.2 27.8 30.3 35.5 49.7 61.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 42.6 41.5 47.9 68.6 28.2 30.7 44.2 57.2 65.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 28.8 33.2 50.3 63.9 24.4 27.5 35.3 43.3 64.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 43.6 44.2 62.3 72.3 31.6 33.2 45.6 62.7 88.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 33.4 32.7 44.7 66.2 30.7 30.2 35.0 43.0 50.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 35.4 39.5 48.4 65.6 26.3 28.1 41.4 46.5 60.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 30.0 34.6 44.5 77.2 37.8 36.6 33.7 40.9 60.1 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 47.6 46.6 66.7 73.0 29.1 33.2 49.3 62.9 85.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 39.9 39.1 45.4 74.0 37.0 35.7 39.1 63.2 76.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 46.1 51.2 66.1 73.2 28.4 32.0 53.8 67.8 72.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 30.8 41.7 51.7 75.0 36.6 34.5 38.7 47.8 58.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 33.5 32.2 44.4 72.3 33.9 34.9 32.2 47.5 59.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 30.4 33.3 46.6 72.2 34.9 34.9 31.6 45.1 69.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 42.4 50.3 60.3 74.6 31.9 34.8 51.0 60.4 71.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 36.3 40.3 58.1 79.0 38.9 35.5 39.7 55.3 61.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 32.7 35.5 42.9 61.0 22.8 26.7 41.3 51.0 59.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 35.5 42.3 55.8 79.8 38.5 36.4 40.6 52.1 65.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 29.3 32.4 47.9 64.4 28.1 28.3 37.3 49.5 59.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 62.5 71.2 67.7 73.7 29.9 33.0 76.3 86.9 101.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 29.0 33.2 46.4 76.2 38.4 36.1 30.5 40.6 55.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------