***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.2 16.9 102.6 58.8 49.7 1.9 5.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.2 14.4 99.0 61.2 49.4 1.9 7.1 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.7 15.4 94.2 56.6 47.3 1.8 4.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.6 16.6 88.0 53.8 45.0 4.6 9.9 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.2 14.3 81.3 51.8 43.3 3.1 7.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.2 12.4 18.8 86.3 53.2 45.9 7.3 11.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 8.7 15.5 104.8 62.7 50.1 1.3 4.5 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 26.9 22.0 16.3 78.7 49.8 42.8 12.1 22.2 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.8 15.0 80.3 51.0 42.6 2.8 9.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 10.8 17.1 78.7 48.8 42.7 5.3 10.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.1 9.3 13.5 80.5 52.9 44.0 7.4 8.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.3 13.3 77.4 51.5 43.3 8.6 13.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.1 8.2 14.9 75.7 48.9 43.7 3.2 8.6 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.6 14.1 18.8 85.6 52.2 46.5 8.9 13.4 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.1 15.0 87.2 59.2 46.1 3.4 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.9 11.6 14.2 77.7 49.8 43.4 6.3 11.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.2 14.8 104.8 63.4 50.2 2.2 6.2 11.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 14.0 19.0 79.5 48.9 42.3 7.6 14.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.5 14.2 94.1 59.2 48.7 2.7 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 11.8 19.6 83.9 49.3 43.2 8.2 11.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.0 15.8 91.4 55.1 46.1 4.1 6.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.8 14.6 94.9 61.6 49.1 4.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.4 14.1 89.7 56.2 47.8 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.6 12.2 17.4 84.3 51.5 44.6 9.8 12.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.3 19.7 107.6 62.0 49.6 3.7 8.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.2 9.6 12.2 69.8 49.9 42.2 5.9 9.6 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.5 19.3 108.7 62.9 50.5 1.6 7.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.2 15.4 80.4 52.9 44.3 3.7 9.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.5 14.7 19.5 81.8 49.8 43.2 11.1 14.7 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.0 14.8 97.7 59.4 48.5 3.2 6.3 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------