***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.8 18.9 13.7 85.8 55.5 45.0 12.6 16.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.8 12.8 12.4 79.5 54.4 43.3 7.8 12.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.4 13.9 13.8 84.6 55.6 45.2 10.1 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 8.2 12.6 13.7 72.7 47.0 40.8 10.4 13.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 14.9 14.4 80.6 48.6 44.0 9.4 15.3 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.7 9.0 15.0 70.2 42.4 38.9 6.6 12.9 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.1 12.7 84.9 57.1 45.2 4.8 12.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 13.6 23.9 17.2 87.1 51.5 44.8 14.7 23.4 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.3 14.2 15.4 84.1 52.6 44.6 8.8 13.1 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.3 16.1 17.8 85.7 51.4 44.9 12.0 15.4 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.5 14.2 13.7 83.4 50.9 45.1 5.7 13.3 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.4 10.2 14.0 83.6 49.7 44.4 8.1 10.3 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.8 9.3 13.9 71.9 44.3 40.7 4.9 9.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.6 19.2 18.2 83.4 53.3 44.9 16.4 18.8 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.0 8.8 11.1 68.4 47.4 39.9 4.4 9.4 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.3 9.2 13.1 71.8 44.6 40.9 7.0 11.5 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.9 11.4 12.5 82.5 58.1 43.9 3.6 8.6 11.7 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 17.0 20.2 88.7 52.7 45.9 6.8 15.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.4 13.3 12.4 77.2 52.6 43.4 9.7 13.0 20.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.5 16.7 20.3 90.9 54.5 46.1 10.7 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 10.7 18.3 14.4 85.7 54.3 45.0 9.0 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.7 11.0 12.3 74.3 53.2 42.4 5.7 10.1 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 7.5 13.6 13.0 80.2 56.2 45.3 8.7 13.0 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.5 16.6 17.9 88.4 53.0 46.0 12.6 15.2 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.6 13.9 15.5 84.7 53.1 44.2 6.8 12.7 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 5.8 12.1 12.0 71.9 47.2 41.4 5.6 13.1 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.7 18.0 14.8 85.4 52.9 44.1 8.8 17.4 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.7 10.4 12.3 66.9 45.0 39.0 8.3 12.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.3 23.0 20.5 89.6 54.2 46.2 14.6 18.8 35.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.9 13.9 12.8 82.0 55.2 44.1 9.5 12.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------