***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.6 12.1 16.3 107.3 65.9 42.4 3.6 9.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.6 11.4 15.3 109.1 63.5 46.8 3.1 5.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.2 16.4 15.5 96.6 61.3 42.9 2.5 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.3 13.7 16.0 84.4 55.7 38.3 5.0 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.7 16.8 93.1 58.6 40.2 5.2 8.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.8 7.9 17.5 80.5 48.1 37.1 6.2 8.5 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.5 8.1 15.3 109.6 65.2 46.7 1.8 3.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.3 16.4 16.8 86.9 51.9 41.4 8.2 16.0 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 1.9 8.9 16.8 90.4 57.9 40.2 3.4 5.1 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.5 10.8 17.7 89.1 54.3 42.0 4.9 9.4 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.9 5.9 16.1 90.2 57.2 39.9 3.8 4.8 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.3 8.9 14.9 86.6 54.6 39.4 3.8 7.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.2 4.6 16.5 83.8 52.4 38.4 3.8 4.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.4 15.0 18.1 91.7 58.3 41.4 3.1 9.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.1 14.7 85.1 56.3 38.2 2.8 5.8 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.0 8.1 15.9 85.1 53.8 38.2 3.7 7.3 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.9 14.1 104.8 63.1 46.5 2.7 7.9 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 15.3 18.8 87.0 53.1 42.8 8.7 14.6 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.6 15.3 15.4 106.3 62.7 46.1 2.3 12.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 8.0 18.6 86.3 51.2 41.7 4.5 8.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.7 11.3 16.4 96.5 61.6 41.0 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.6 15.0 14.0 100.3 63.3 46.7 2.9 7.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.4 13.7 15.5 101.0 62.4 44.6 2.6 5.7 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.2 16.1 17.9 91.3 58.4 43.1 4.6 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.4 17.6 18.4 101.7 61.9 40.8 4.6 12.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.3 7.3 14.5 80.7 49.3 36.6 2.6 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.4 13.1 17.7 106.6 65.5 41.9 4.2 10.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.5 15.0 83.0 55.3 38.1 3.7 7.1 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 9.2 19.9 19.1 86.2 51.9 42.4 7.8 19.5 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.4 9.0 15.1 105.2 62.5 45.5 1.8 6.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------